Analysts of the grain market confirm a significant reduction of prices for the purchase of key crops. However, only in some regions. In particular in the East the prices for grains and oilseeds "collapsed" more than twice because of the proximity to the war zones. In this case we are talking about the purchase for cash (the so-called "Form 2") and self-delivery from the farm-seller. So this dynamic cannot be called widespread.
Pork producers confirm that a large part of the reduction in price of feed ingredients is "eaten up" by the doubled cost of delivery. So, taking into account VAT and logistics costs, most crops have fallen in price by 20-35% on average against their pre-war level. Only sunflower meal and oilcake prices have fallen by half. However, not all pork producers are benefiting from this reduction in price, because many are stocking up for the entire marketing year until the new harvest. This means that they are still feeding on grains purchased last year at a higher price.
In addition, a number of pork producers fear that after the ports are unblocked the prices for grains and oilseed products will sharply "improve" with a gap with global quotations. Experts assure that the domestic market will "converge" to the global prices gradually. Thus, now the growers do not receive from $100 to $200 per ton due to the complicated situation. That is why prices will go up in this range, but not at once. For example, after clearing the waters it will take at least two months to restore the normal operation of the port infrastructure. After that the prices may rise by 30-50 USD/t. However, this rise is unlikely to turn into a price gallop, and further price movement will be quite smooth and will depend on the pace of export activity. The latter will be noticeably inferior to usual rates, so it is highly probable that there will be enough forage for this season. On the other hand, such a situation may "respond" by reducing the area of winter crops, which will noticeably affect the market situation in the future.
The Association of Ukranian Pig Breeders is a non-profit, voluntary organization founded by domestic pork producers. The main objectives of the association are representation and protection of rights and interests of farms of the association, assistance in development and implementation of new technologies for efficient production of pork, expansion of sales markets, and protection of domestic sales market.