China is following the path of self-sufficiency in pig meat, with a rate of 100% for this year, according to a Polish market analyst. In a tweet on his account, Jacek Strzelecki announce the end of the era with elevated trade figures for pork.
«Pork production in China:
— 2021 96% self-sufficiency; 2022 100% self-sufficiency; 2023 102% self-sufficiency. Pig herd in China — forecast:
— 2022 — 504 million units;
— 2023 — 554 million units,» said Mr. Strzelecki. In his defense, the analyst points out the decreased volume in meat imports for 2021 in China, especially for pork. Also, the data revealed by the Chinese officials show elevated figures in pig meat production for last year, just an inch below the pre-ASF crisis. China will not be allowed to export pork to other countries, as ASF is still present in farms but it will drastically reduce pork imports. The effect will be felt by major players such as Brazil, Spain, the US and Canada. Also, pork exports to Asia will continue to be attractive, as countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea or Japan will continue to import pig meat due to a deficit of animal protein in their markets but the suppliers may come from different regions. As an example, in the Vietnamese market, Russia is the main supplier of pork, covering more than 30% of the pig meat imports, with Miratorg acting as the main supplier of Russian pork in this market (32,000 tonnes delivered last year). Currently, the US is the only major player in the global market to announce a decline in the national swine inventory and, most probably, some of the volumes exported in the last two years to China will be kept in the domestic market. The EU is already confronted with oversupply in pork, which means that the average price for pig meat will fall further.
PigUA.info by materials euromeatnews.com