In recent years, rising demand in the world’s largest pork-consuming nation has driven the expansion and modernization of hog farms. However, economic slowdown has led to a decline in consumption, resulting in an oversupply that has depressed prices. Zhu stated that current demand remains stable and is unlikely to increase further.
He advised pork producers against expanding their breeding sow capacity in 2024, suggesting instead that they focus on cost reduction and improving production efficiency. In response to the market situation, the Chinese government has lowered its national target for breeding sow retention from 41 million to 39 million and introduced new regulations to control pig production capacity.
According to China’s annual rural policy blueprint, known as the “No. 1 Document,” authorities will tighten supervision over pig slaughter and regulate pork production volumes.
An increase in breeding sows this year could further pressure hog prices, Zhu warned. He also forecasted that pork imports will continue to decline in 2025, following a 15.7% drop in 2024. Last year, China imported 1.07 million metric tons of pork, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
The number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 is expected to rise, while the average price of live pigs is projected to fall by 10–20%. Meanwhile, demand for pork offal is expected to remain steady.
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