Given the loose government control over veterinary drugs unlawfully sold in the countryside, industry stakeholders fear there could soon be a human-induced swine pandemic of disastrous proportion, perhaps far worse than the African swine fever outbreaks the Philippines has seen in the recent past.

Researchers are warning that, even with control measures quickly put in place, the U.S. pig industry would be impacted significantly by an outbreak of African swine fever, a disease likely to present a mortality rate of up to 100 percent among infected pigs. An outbreak could cost as much as $80 billion as it spreads through the southeastern U.S., the new study in Preventive Veterinary Medicine finds. Worse, because infected animals may be asymptomatic, the disease could quickly spread from farm to farm before it is detected.

This was reported by the Department of Civil Protection and Defense of the Chernihiv Regional State Administration.

Between-farm movements accounted for 71% of disease transmissions in the model, with local spread and vehicular transmission both contributing about 14% each.